Archive for November, 2009

Wells Fargo’s chief economist, John Silvia, predicts that the housing market in the United States will likely weaken in the months to come.

In his most recent economic forecast, Silvia said, “There is no clear, easy way out for housing.” Silvia continued, “Contrary to my hopes, housing prices and the housing market in general will weaken again.”

Silvia’s forecast predicts that housing prices will decline by as much as 10%, which he expects will take off up to 0.5% of the nation’s economic output as it emerges from the recession.

Recently released economic data agree with Silvia’s assessment of the housing industry. Two price indexes were released last Tuesday indicating that the momentum in the housing market during the spring and summer is faltering.

S&P’s Case-Schiller home price index, a closely watched measure of the performance of housing markets in 20 metropolitan areas only rose by 0.3% during the month of September on a seasonally adjusted basis. During the month, prices fell in 9 major cities in the index, including Boston, New York, Seattle and Charlotte, N.C.

Another report from the Federal Housing Financing Agency indicated that changes in real estate prices were flat from August to September.

The Case-Schiller index, which represents about 45% of the US housing market, is a 3 month moving average. Since the indexes July and August statistics were relatively strong, the weak September report could indicate that a plunge in housing prices during the month. The index is down nearly 10% from the same time last year and about 29.1% lower than it was during its 2006 peak.



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Wells Fargo’s (NYSE: WFC)’s mortgage refinance rates have hit new all time lows during the last several consecutive days. The most recent interest rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage that has been published is below 4.49%, well below the weekly all time low average of 4.61%.

Last week’s data will likely be atypical because it was a holiday week and many of the bank’s branches were closed for several days or operating on partial schedules. If the results do not indicate that a new weekly all time low has been reached, it’s very likely that Wells Fargo’s mortgage interest rates will hit a new all time record low this week.

The 10 year treasury yield rate is below its 200 day moving average and there’s no indication that mortgage rates will bounce any time soon until the Federal Reserve begins to tighten its stimulus of the mortgage market.

Many borrowers will likely try to wait until mortgage rates hit an absolute all-time low. Unfortunately for them, it will be very difficult to determine this because the low rates that consumers are receiving now are historically unprecedented. Analysts don’t have much to base their predictions on to know when mortgage interest rates will reach their absolute lows.

Consumers that are paying interest rates above 5% on their mortgage might want to consider a refinance. It’s probably better to accept the lowest available interest rate today, because even if mortgage rates drop slightly lower, they are still at interest rates which are close to 40 year lows. By refinancing your mortgage, you could potentially save hundreds of dollars per month in interest that could be used to lower your mortgage’s principal balance.



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Citibank (NYSE: C) has recently sent out letters to untold numbers of consumers that their credit card interest rates were going to increase, but now the company is offering some of its customers a way to lower the interest rate that they are paying, but it’s not without a catch.

Citibank is offering lower interest fees for credit card customers that meet a monthly spending requirement that’s dependent upon the person’s credit history. In some cases, this mandatory minimum spending fee could be as high as several hundred dollars. Customers that meet the spending minimum will be eligible for a rebate on their total interest charges each month.

As the federal government clamps down on highly-profitable and controversial practices in the credit card industry, banks that offer credit cards are looking for new ways to pad their revenue streams. Some banks are beginning to charge annual fees to credit cards that were previously fee-free. Others are raising credit card interest rates and cancelling cards for customers that they no longer deem as profitable.

It will likely be another year or two before we see what credit cards will look like after the dust from the Credit CARD Act of 2009 has settled, but worthwhile rewards programs and credit cards that carry no annual fee will likely become a rarity.

Citibank has responded to the legislation by raising many of its customers’ interest rates to 29.99%, even for some customers with excellent credit. Citibank has also cancelled certain gasoline-related credit cards with little to no notice.

Several of those customers have commented on American Banking News’ articles about the rate increases and consumer sentiment about the company’s move is less than favorable.



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