Archive for December, 2009

Dec
31

MBS MORNING: Jobless Claims Data Pushes Rates Higher

Posted by: Adam Quinones | Comments Comments Off

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning on this last day of the decade. 10 years sure did go by fast didnt it? Remember the whole y2k computer crisis? People thought the world was going to end when 1999 rolled over to 2000. We dodged a bullet on that one huh? (note sarcasm) Just out of curiosity...how are you planning on referring to 2010? Two thousand and ten? Twenty-Ten? O-ten? Ten? I'm leaning towards "Twenty-Ten"...it sounds like something George Jetson might say. Jobless Claims data has been released...it was not bond market friendly. Initial Jobless Claims were WAY better than expected, falling to 432,000 from 454,000 last week. Consensus forecasts were calling for a read of 460,000 new claims. This is the lowest number of initial jobless claims since July 19, 2008. Continuing Claims also beat expectations...(read more)

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Last week, the government pledged essentially unlimited support to Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), in an effort to ensure the housing market does not unravel further.

Through this effort, the Treasury Department has ensured that mortgage rates will stay low, and this should be a boon for economic activity as we enter the new year. Consumers, seeing the seeds of a rebound, may be prompted to buy new homes, and will be able to take advantage of these artificially low rates. Banks should experience strong profits, as they will be able to sell these conforming loans to Fannie and Freddie.

This action will cover losses experienced by the mortgage giants through 2012, allowing the companies investment portfolios to grow, and implementing a safety net at the same time. In September 2008, the Bush administration’s plan was aimed at shrinking the size of the companies’ holdings of mortgage backed securities.

What a difference a year makes. Just a year ago, the key concern was the toxicity of these loans, but now, the goal seems to be to give out as many new loans as possible, without regard to credit quality. This action did not require approval by Congress, and will likely allow Fannie and Freddie to become more aggressive in the housing market. Edward Pinto, a housing consultant who served as Fannie Mae’s chief credit officer in the later 1980’s commented “They’ve cleared the decks to use Fannie and Freddie as a vessel for whatever they want.”

As the refinance activity has not helped to stem the national foreclosure mess, the Treasury could also lean on Fannie and Freddie to help homeowners avoid foreclosures, and prompt a new wave of refinancing.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac finance three quarters of all new mortgages – so, last year’s plan to shrink their book would have disastrous consequences. Although their risk profile would certainly lower, the effects on consumers would be massive. The Treasury Department says its only motivation is to make sure investors remain confident that Fannie and Freddie can keep doing their jobs of buying the bulk of mortgages made in the U.S. and turning them into investments.

Who would actually buy these investments is yet to be seen. Fannie and Freddie must convince everyone from the Chinese central bank to hedge funds to individual investors that it is still safe to buy their debt securities, which they sell partly through weekly auctions. The two firms have sold $2.7 trillion in debt this year, according to Credit Suisse calculations. Giving out loans is one thing, being able to sell them is a different issue altogether.


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Dec
31

The Day Ahead: Last Day of the Decade

Posted by: Patrick McGee | Comments Comments Off

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It’s the final day of the decade and the S&P 500 and Dow each are likely to close the year with their biggest annual percentage gains in five years, two of the many signs that the worst of the financial crisis is over. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 24.7% while the Dow is 20.2%. The economy may not be in shambles anymore but it’s still far from good, and for anyone who needs a reminder the one data entry today, jobless claims, should helpfully provide a dose of reality. Two hours before the trading session begins, The Dow looks to open 13 points higher at 10,503 while the benchmark S&P 500 looks to open 2.75 points higher at 1,124.75. Commodities are also on the rise with WTI Crude oil trading 36 cents higher at $79.64 per barrel and Spot Gold up $12.48 to $1,105.38...(read more)

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